MACROECONOMIC SITUATION OF NEPALESE ECONOMY BASED ON EIGHT MONTH’S DATA OF FY 2021/22
This macroeconomic report is prepared based on eight month’s data of FY 2021/22 published by NRB. The key macro-economic indicators and variables are highlighted in the table below, and explained in further section :
A. NEPSE and Ratio of Market Cap to GDP
The NEPSE index at Mid-Mar 2022 inclined remarkably by 8.53% to close at 2,668.12 points, compared to 2,458.49 points in the same period last year. The Market capitalization of NEPSE as well increased from NPR 3,387.34 billion in Mid-Mar 2021 to NPR NPR 3,782.79 billion in Mid-Mar 2022.
On the other hand, the ratio of market capitalization of NEPSE to GDP at Mid-Mar 2022 has decreased to 88.67% compared to 89.92% in the last year during the same review period.
B. INTEREST RATES
To evaluate the current scenario of interest rate in the economy, interbank rate and base rate of commercial banks are taken into consideration.
The interbank rate of commercial banks had decreased to 0.02% in Mid-Aug,2020 which has been gradually rising since then and has reached to 6.56% in Mid-Mar 2022 indicating tightening of liquidity in the banking system compared to Mid-Mar 2021. The interbank rate during the same period a year ago stood at 1.26%.
The base rate of commercial banks stands at 8.98% in Mid-Mar 2022 compared to 6.84% a year ago. This has set the weighted average lending rate at 10.60%. On the other hand, the weighted average deposit rate stands at 6.93%. Such rates were 8.73% and 4.76% respectively in the corresponding month of the previous year.
C. INFLATION RATE
The consumer price inflation which was 3.02% a year ago increased to 7.14% in Mid-Mar 2022. This is the highest increase in CPI index in past five years. Food and beverage inflation stood at 7.51 percent whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 6.84 percent in the review month.. The prices of ghee & oil, vegetable, milk products and eggs and pulses & legumes sub-categories rose by 26.34 percent, 13.96 percent, 11.30 and 10.30 percent respectively on y-o-y basis.
D. DEPOSIT AND LENDING GROWTH
Deposit Growth: The deposits of BFI’s as at Mid-Mar 2022 increased by 3.40% to NPR 4,901.87 billion, compared to NPR 4,740.90 billion in Mid-July 2021. The increase during the same period last year was 10.37%. The share of demand, saving, and fixed deposits in total deposits stands at 8.4 percent, 29.1 percent and 55.5 percent respectively in mid-March 2022. Such shares were 8.4 percent, 34.5 percent and 48.6 percent respectively a year ago.
Credit Growth: The credit disbursement of BFI’s as at Mid-Mar 2022 increased to NPR. 4,701.09 billion by 12.66%, compared to NPR 4,172.78 billion in Mid-July 2021. The growth during the same period last year was 17.76%. Outstanding loan of BFIs to the agriculture sector increased 16.1 percent, industrial production sector 9.8 percent, transportation, communication and public sector 9.2 percent, wholesale and retail sector 14.7 percent and service industry sector 7.4 percent in the review period. In the review period, term loan extended by BFIs increased 13.1 percent, overdraft 21.4 percent, demand and other working capital loan 15.6 percent, real estate loan (including residential personal home loan) 14.1 percent and hire purchase loan 5.0 percent while that of trust receipt (import) loan decreased 41.9 percent and margin nature loan 9.9 percent.
E. LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT
In the review period, NRB mopped up Rs.60 billion liquidity of which Rs.28.35 billion was through reverse repo auction and Rs.31.65 billion through deposit collection auction. In the corresponding period of the previous year, it was Rs.303.29 billion liquidity of which Rs.109.54 billion was through reverse repo and Rs. 193.75 billion through deposit collection auction. In the review period, NRB injected Rs.5,070.76 billion liquidity of which Rs. 393.36 billion was through repo, Rs.55.91 billion through outright purchase and Rs.4,621.48 billion through standing liquidity facility.
F. FISCAL SITUATION
In the first eight months of 2021/22, total revenue collected by the government till Mid-Mar 2022 is Rs.684.69 billion which is 19.87% higher compared with the corresponding month of the previous fiscal year. The total expenditure of the government till Mid-Mar 2022 is Rs.675.29 billion which is 18.26% higher than that of the expenditure on the corresponding month of previous fiscal year.
G. BALANCE OF PAYMENT POSITION
The country’s BOP position is at deficit in the first eight month of FY 2021/22 by NPR 258.63 billion compared to a surplus of NPR 68.01 billion during the same period last year. On the other hand, the current account remained at a deficit of Rs.462.93 billion in the review period compared to a deficit of Rs.151.41 billion in the same period of the previous year. In the review period, capital transfer decreased 41.2 percent to Rs.7 billion and net foreign direct investment (FDI) increased 60.0 percent to Rs.16.30 billion. In the same period of the previous year, capital transfer and net FDI amounted to Rs.11.91 billion and Rs.10.18 billion respectively.
The workers’ remittance growth rate is subject to different terms of US Dollar and Nepalese Currency based on exchange rate of NPR with US Dollar. Hence, the workers’ remittance growth in terms of US Dollar and NPR has been presented below:
Remittance in Dollar Terms
In US Dollar terms, the workers’ remittance decreased by 3.01% to $5,283.03 million during the first eight months in FY 2021/22 compared to an increase of 5% during the same period in FY 2020/21.
Remittance in NPR terms
On the other hand, in NPR terms, the workers’ remittance decreased by 1.73% to NPR 631.19 billion during the first eight months in FY 2021/22 compared to a rise of 8.65% during the same period in FY 2020/21.
Number of Nepali workers (institutional and individual-new and legalized) taking approval for foreign employment increased significantly to 227,900 in the review period. It had decreased 82.9 percent in the same period of the previous year. The number of Nepali workers (Renew entry) taking approval for foreign employment increased 240.9 percent to 178,262 in the review period. It had decreased 70.2 percent in the same period of the previous year.